⚽JetLagXI
WC 2026 is complete — this site is the archive. The model continues for the 2026–27 season as Brier FC → brierfc.com
Monte Carlo · group stage

Who's likely to advance? — 10,000 simulations

Every match is simulated 10,000 times with Poisson goals driven by Elo difference. Top 2 in each group plus the 8 best 3rd-place finishers advance to the Round of 32. Once games start, real scores feed back in and the projections update.

Championship contenders

Ranked by Monte Carlo champion % — the team that wins the most of 10,000 simulated tournaments. If two teams are within ~1pp the ordering is effectively a coin-flip and may differ from the deterministic Elo cascade on the /bracket page, which always advances the higher-Elo team.

ESPSpain
100.0%to win it
Reach final100%
Reach SF100%
Reach QF100%
MEXMexico
0.0%to win it
Reach final0%
Reach SF0%
Reach QF0%
RSASouth Africa
0.0%to win it
Reach final0%
Reach SF0%
Reach QF0%
KORSouth Korea
0.0%to win it
Reach final0%
Reach SF0%
Reach QF0%
CZECzech Republic
0.0%to win it
Reach final0%
Reach SF0%
Reach QF0%
CANCanada
0.0%to win it
Reach final0%
Reach SF0%
Reach QF0%
BIHBosnia and Herzegovina
0.0%to win it
Reach final0%
Reach SF0%
Reach QF0%
QATQatar
0.0%to win it
Reach final0%
Reach SF0%
Reach QF0%
See the full knockout bracket →

This page gives you the odds — how likely each team is to advance. The bracket gives you the shape: locked matchups from real results, plus the projected path to the final, R32 through the trophy.

→

Projected group standings

Per-team position probabilities, expected points, expected goal difference, and advance%. Most-likely finish for each team highlighted in amber.

Group ADifficulty rank #11 of 12 · Sum Elo 6883
TeamTop2nd3rd4thxPtsxGDAdv
MEXMexicoOut100%0%0%0%9.0+6.0100%
RSASouth AfricaOut0%100%0%0%4.0-1.0100%
KORSouth KoreaOut0%0%100%0%3.0-1.00%
CZECzech RepublicOut0%0%0%100%1.0-4.00%
Group BDifficulty rank #12 of 12 · Sum Elo 6695
TeamTop2nd3rd4thxPtsxGDAdv
SUISwitzerlandOut100%0%0%0%7.0+4.0100%
CANCanadaOut0%100%0%0%4.0+5.0100%
BIHBosnia and HerzegovinaOut0%0%100%0%4.0-1.0100%
QATQatarOut0%0%0%100%1.0-8.00%
Group CDifficulty rank #8 of 12 · Sum Elo 7136
TeamTop2nd3rd4thxPtsxGDAdv
BRABrazilOut100%0%0%0%7.0+6.0100%
MARMoroccoOut0%100%0%0%7.0+3.0100%
SCOScotlandOut0%0%100%0%3.0-3.00%
HAIHaitiOut0%0%0%100%0.0-6.00%
Group DDifficulty rank #4 of 12 · Sum Elo 7248
TeamTop2nd3rd4thxPtsxGDAdv
USAUnited StatesOut100%0%0%0%6.0+4.0100%
AUSAustraliaOut0%100%0%0%4.0+0.0100%
PARParaguayOut0%0%100%0%4.0-2.0100%
TURTurkeyOut0%0%0%100%3.0-2.00%
Group EDifficulty rank #9 of 12 · Sum Elo 6991
TeamTop2nd3rd4thxPtsxGDAdv
GERGermanyOut100%0%0%0%6.0+6.0100%
CIVIvory CoastOut0%100%0%0%6.0+2.0100%
ECUEcuadorOut0%0%100%0%4.0+0.0100%
CUWCuraçaoOut0%0%0%100%1.0-8.00%
Group FDifficulty rank #5 of 12 · Sum Elo 7207
TeamTop2nd3rd4thxPtsxGDAdv
NEDNetherlandsOut100%0%0%0%7.0+6.0100%
JPNJapanOut0%100%0%0%5.0+4.0100%
SWESwedenOut0%0%100%0%4.0+0.0100%
TUNTunisiaOut0%0%0%100%0.0-10.00%
Group GDifficulty rank #10 of 12 · Sum Elo 6914
TeamTop2nd3rd4thxPtsxGDAdv
BELBelgiumOut100%0%0%0%5.0+4.0100%
EGYEgyptOut0%100%0%0%5.0+2.0100%
IRNIranOut0%0%100%0%3.0+0.00%
NZLNew ZealandOut0%0%0%100%1.0-6.00%
Group HDifficulty rank #6 of 12 · Sum Elo 7203
TeamTop2nd3rd4thxPtsxGDAdv
ESPSpain100%0%0%0%7.0+5.0100%
CPVCape VerdeOut0%100%0%0%3.0+0.0100%
URUUruguayOut0%0%100%0%2.0-1.00%
KSASaudi ArabiaOut0%0%0%100%2.0-4.00%
Group IDifficulty rank #1 of 12 · Sum Elo 7472
TeamTop2nd3rd4thxPtsxGDAdv
FRAFranceOut100%0%0%0%9.0+8.0100%
NORNorwayOut0%100%0%0%6.0+1.0100%
SENSenegalOut0%0%100%0%3.0+2.0100%
IRQIraqOut0%0%0%100%0.0-11.00%
Group JDifficulty rank #2 of 12 · Sum Elo 7400
TeamTop2nd3rd4thxPtsxGDAdv
ARGArgentinaOut100%0%0%0%9.0+7.0100%
AUTAustriaOut0%100%0%0%4.0+0.0100%
ALGAlgeriaOut0%0%100%0%4.0-2.0100%
JORJordanOut0%0%0%100%0.0-5.00%
Group KDifficulty rank #3 of 12 · Sum Elo 7334
TeamTop2nd3rd4thxPtsxGDAdv
COLColombiaOut100%0%0%0%7.0+3.0100%
PORPortugalOut0%100%0%0%5.0+5.0100%
CODDR CongoOut0%0%100%0%4.0+1.0100%
UZBUzbekistanOut0%0%0%100%0.0-9.00%
Group LDifficulty rank #7 of 12 · Sum Elo 7180
TeamTop2nd3rd4thxPtsxGDAdv
ENGEnglandOut100%0%0%0%7.0+4.0100%
CROCroatiaOut0%100%0%0%6.0+0.0100%
GHAGhanaOut0%0%100%0%4.0+0.0100%
PANPanamaOut0%0%0%100%0.0-4.00%

Most likely group winners

Group A100% chance
MEX
Mexico
Advance 100% · Exp 9.0 pts
Group B100% chance
SUI
Switzerland
Advance 100% · Exp 7.0 pts
Group C100% chance
BRA
Brazil
Advance 100% · Exp 7.0 pts
Group D100% chance
USA
United States
Advance 100% · Exp 6.0 pts
Group E100% chance
GER
Germany
Advance 100% · Exp 6.0 pts
Group F100% chance
NED
Netherlands
Advance 100% · Exp 7.0 pts
Group G100% chance
BEL
Belgium
Advance 100% · Exp 5.0 pts
Group H100% chance
ESP
Spain
Advance 100% · Exp 7.0 pts
Group I100% chance
FRA
France
Advance 100% · Exp 9.0 pts
Group J100% chance
ARG
Argentina
Advance 100% · Exp 9.0 pts
Group K100% chance
COL
Colombia
Advance 100% · Exp 7.0 pts
Group L100% chance
ENG
England
Advance 100% · Exp 7.0 pts
Dark horses — low Elo, decent advance chance
RSASouth AfricaElo 1517100%BIHBosnia and HerzegovinaElo 1616100%EGYEgyptElo 1699100%CPVCape VerdeElo 1606100%CODDR CongoElo 1655100%
Upset watch — strong teams at risk
TURTurkeyElo 18490%URUUruguayElo 18700%MEXMexicoElo 1868100%SUISwitzerlandElo 1865100%BRABrazilElo 1988100%

All 48 teams · advancement probabilities

Confederation:10,000 simulations · uses real scores when present
#TeamGrp
1MEXMexicoOutA
100%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
9.01868
2RSASouth AfricaOutA
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
4.01517
3CANCanadaOutB
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
4.01767
4BIHBosnia and HerzegovinaOutB
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
4.01616
5SUISwitzerlandOutB
100%
100%
100%0%0%
0.0%
7.01865
6BRABrazilOutC
100%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
7.01988
7MARMoroccoOutC
0%
100%
100%0%0%
0.0%
7.01822
8USAUnited StatesOutD
100%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
6.01780
9PARParaguayOutD
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
4.01780
10AUSAustraliaOutD
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
4.01839
11GERGermanyOutE
100%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
6.01925
12CIVIvory CoastOutE
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
6.01743
13ECUEcuadorOutE
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
4.01890
14NEDNetherlandsOutF
100%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
7.01961
15JPNJapanOutF
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
5.01906
16SWESwedenOutF
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
4.01755
17BELBelgiumOutG
100%
100%
100%0%0%
0.0%
5.01866
18EGYEgyptOutG
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
5.01699
19ESPSpainH
100%
100%
100%100%100%
100.0%
7.02129
20CPVCape VerdeOutH
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
3.01606
21FRAFranceOutI
100%
100%
100%100%0%
0.0%
9.02081
22SENSenegalOutI
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
3.01866
23NORNorwayOutI
0%
100%
100%0%0%
0.0%
6.01917
24ARGArgentinaOutJ
100%
100%
100%100%100%
0.0%
9.02113
25ALGAlgeriaOutJ
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
4.01772
26AUTAustriaOutJ
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
4.01830
27PORPortugalOutK
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
5.01984
28CODDR CongoOutK
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
4.01655
29COLColombiaOutK
100%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
7.01977
30ENGEnglandOutL
100%
100%
100%100%0%
0.0%
7.02020
31CROCroatiaOutL
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
6.01930
32GHAGhanaOutL
0%
100%
0%0%0%
0.0%
4.01503
33KORSouth KoreaOutA
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
3.01786
34CZECzech RepublicOutA
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
1.01712
35QATQatarOutB
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
1.01447
36HAIHaitiOutC
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
0.01532
37SCOScotlandOutC
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
3.01794
38TURTurkeyOutD
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
3.01849
39CUWCuraçaoOutE
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
1.01433
40TUNTunisiaOutF
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
0.01585
41IRNIranOutG
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
3.01764
42NZLNew ZealandOutG
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
1.01585
43KSASaudi ArabiaOutH
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
2.01598
44URUUruguayOutH
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
2.01870
45IRQIraqOutI
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
0.01608
46JORJordanOutJ
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
0.01685
47UZBUzbekistanOutK
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
0.01718
48PANPanamaOutL
0%
0%
0%0%0%
0.0%
0.01727
★ Did the model get it right?

The calibration report is in

Every prediction above was logged before kickoff and scored after the final: Brier 0.132, favorites won 65.4%, and the model's day-one pick lifted the trophy. The full accounting — including the misses — is public.

Read the report →
Methodology

Group stage: goals modeled as Poisson with λA = max(0.15, 1.4 + (EloA − EloB)/700). Standings broken by points → goal diff → goals for → team code.

Knockout (R32 → Final): direct Elo win probability, pA = 1 / (1 + 10(EloB − EloA)/500). Third-place qualifiers assigned to FIFA's 8 bracket slots via backtracking constraint solver (each slot accepts a 3rd from one of 5 published groups).

10,000 simulations. Once a match has a real score, it's used directly; the rest are simulated.

★ Tournament completeHow did the model actually do? Read the calibration report →