Live · knockout stage
Knockout bracket
Live bracket from Round of 32 to the Final. Real matchups, real scores as they land. R16 → Final cascades the higher-Elo team at each step until the actual result is recorded.
Completetournament over · winner is in
Card badges:FINAL= score recordedMEX 62%= matchup confirmed · model favorite + Elo win %MEX 62%= projection · matchup not yet confirmedBelgium ?= slot still being decided
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Projected champion
Shows what the bracket looks like if the favorite wins every match. The 100.0% above is Spain's actual odds across 10,000 simulations — most real paths involve upsets.
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
SF
QF
R16
R32
Final
Semifinals
Quarterfinals
Round of 16
Round of 32
How this bracket is drawn: Round-of-32 slots come from each group's projected finishers — top two from each group, plus the 8 best third-place teams matched to their FIFA-assigned slots. From there, the higher-Elo team is shown advancing at every step, cascading to the Final. That makes the displayed path one clean scenario where every favorite wins, not the most likely actual outcome — see /predictions for the per-team odds. Real R32 bracket locks in on 2026-06-27.
Want the full per-team odds — top-of-group, advance, R16, QF, SF, Final, champion? See the Monte Carlo board on /predictions.