{
  "generatedAt": "2026-07-20T01:46:20.953Z",
  "outcomes": {
    "champion": "ESP",
    "runnerUp": "ARG",
    "third": "ENG",
    "fourth": "FRA",
    "groupWinners": {
      "E": "GER",
      "F": "NED",
      "C": "BRA",
      "I": "FRA",
      "A": "MEX",
      "L": "ENG",
      "D": "USA",
      "G": "BEL",
      "H": "ESP",
      "B": "SUI",
      "J": "ARG",
      "K": "COL"
    }
  },
  "headline": {
    "n": 104,
    "strictHits": 68,
    "strictPct": 65.38461538461539,
    "lenientHits": 88,
    "lenientPct": 84.61538461538461,
    "draws": 20,
    "brier": 0.13202178042423438,
    "brierBaseline": 0.25
  },
  "bands": [
    {
      "label": "≥90%",
      "n": 5,
      "hits": 3,
      "hitPct": 60,
      "avgConf": 91.82109223821604
    },
    {
      "label": "80–90%",
      "n": 20,
      "hits": 16,
      "hitPct": 80,
      "avgConf": 84.83804485661793
    },
    {
      "label": "70–80%",
      "n": 26,
      "hits": 20,
      "hitPct": 76.92307692307693,
      "avgConf": 75.96008368096243
    },
    {
      "label": "60–70%",
      "n": 26,
      "hits": 15,
      "hitPct": 57.692307692307686,
      "avgConf": 65.25403501711182
    },
    {
      "label": "50–60%",
      "n": 27,
      "hits": 14,
      "hitPct": 51.85185185185185,
      "avgConf": 55.898423737903634
    }
  ],
  "tournamentBrier": {
    "snapshotDate": "2026-06-12",
    "pAdvance": {
      "brier": 0.18355092124999994,
      "baseline": 0.22222222222222224
    },
    "pTopOfGroup": {
      "brier": 0.10919085374999998,
      "baseline": 0.1875
    },
    "pChampion": {
      "brier": 0.013621475833333334,
      "baseline": 0.020399305555555552
    }
  },
  "rocClaims": [
    {
      "label": "≥90%",
      "teams": 6,
      "advanced": 6
    },
    {
      "label": "≥70%",
      "teams": 23,
      "advanced": 18
    },
    {
      "label": "≤30%",
      "teams": 3,
      "advanced": 2
    }
  ],
  "misses": [
    {
      "matchId": 54,
      "date": "2026-06-24",
      "stage": "A",
      "favorite": "KOR",
      "confidence": 77.53534618970546,
      "winner": "RSA",
      "score": [
        1,
        0
      ],
      "teamA": "RSA",
      "teamB": "KOR"
    },
    {
      "matchId": 11,
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "stage": "E",
      "favorite": "ECU",
      "confidence": 76.72305882165595,
      "winner": "CIV",
      "score": [
        1,
        0
      ],
      "teamA": "CIV",
      "teamB": "ECU"
    },
    {
      "matchId": 23,
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "stage": "L",
      "favorite": "PAN",
      "confidence": 73.72178586884377,
      "winner": "GHA",
      "score": [
        1,
        0
      ],
      "teamA": "GHA",
      "teamB": "PAN"
    },
    {
      "matchId": 74,
      "date": "2026-06-29",
      "stage": "R32",
      "favorite": "GER",
      "confidence": 66.09990912463583,
      "winner": "PAR",
      "score": [
        4,
        5
      ],
      "teamA": "GER",
      "teamB": "PAR"
    },
    {
      "matchId": 88,
      "date": "2026-07-03",
      "stage": "R32",
      "favorite": "AUS",
      "confidence": 65.58205059123951,
      "winner": "EGY",
      "score": [
        3,
        5
      ],
      "teamA": "AUS",
      "teamB": "EGY"
    }
  ],
  "pk": {
    "matches": [
      {
        "matchId": 74,
        "stage": "R32",
        "favorite": "GER",
        "confidence": 66.09990912463583,
        "winner": "PAR",
        "teamA": "GER",
        "teamB": "PAR"
      },
      {
        "matchId": 75,
        "stage": "R32",
        "favorite": "NED",
        "confidence": 65.47802824313321,
        "winner": "MAR",
        "teamA": "NED",
        "teamB": "MAR"
      },
      {
        "matchId": 96,
        "stage": "R16",
        "favorite": "COL",
        "confidence": 62.61602410420532,
        "winner": "SUI",
        "teamA": "SUI",
        "teamB": "COL"
      }
    ],
    "favoriteWins": 0
  },
  "curves": {
    "dates": [
      "2026-06-12",
      "2026-06-13",
      "2026-06-14",
      "2026-06-15",
      "2026-06-16",
      "2026-06-17",
      "2026-06-18",
      "2026-06-19",
      "2026-06-20",
      "2026-06-21",
      "2026-06-22",
      "2026-06-23",
      "2026-06-24",
      "2026-06-25",
      "2026-06-26",
      "2026-06-27",
      "2026-06-28",
      "2026-06-29",
      "2026-06-30",
      "2026-07-01",
      "2026-07-02",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-04",
      "2026-07-05",
      "2026-07-06",
      "2026-07-07",
      "2026-07-08",
      "2026-07-09",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-11",
      "2026-07-12",
      "2026-07-13",
      "2026-07-14",
      "2026-07-15",
      "2026-07-16",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-18",
      "2026-07-19",
      "2026-07-20"
    ],
    "series": {
      "ESP": [
        22.59,
        22.6,
        23.17,
        22.46,
        21.82,
        17.29,
        17.45,
        16.85,
        17.4,
        17,
        18.55,
        19.97,
        19.19,
        18.87,
        19.26,
        18.23,
        18.69,
        17.89,
        18.48,
        18.56,
        17.94,
        21.94,
        21.37,
        19.83,
        19.38,
        29.62,
        28.28,
        27.87,
        25.95,
        33.53,
        33.07,
        31.45,
        30.96,
        55.8,
        51.77,
        51.44,
        52.22,
        51.59,
        100
      ],
      "ARG": [
        14.83,
        15.24,
        14.87,
        15.37,
        15.14,
        16.36,
        17.84,
        17.74,
        17.56,
        18.36,
        19.11,
        19.75,
        19.6,
        18.91,
        19.6,
        19.67,
        20.72,
        21.01,
        21.42,
        21.1,
        20.58,
        20.51,
        20.99,
        22.24,
        21.34,
        20.61,
        26.02,
        26.54,
        25.49,
        25.33,
        22.92,
        30.28,
        30.63,
        29.12,
        48.23,
        48.56,
        47.78,
        48.41,
        0
      ],
      "FRA": [
        12.55,
        11.75,
        12.09,
        12.68,
        12.98,
        14.83,
        14.47,
        14.11,
        14.35,
        14.28,
        13.47,
        13.19,
        13.39,
        14.37,
        13.82,
        14,
        14.21,
        14.14,
        13.99,
        14.43,
        20.74,
        20.42,
        19.99,
        24.47,
        25.01,
        21.97,
        22.38,
        21.31,
        27.83,
        23.89,
        23.3,
        22.75,
        22.4,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0
      ],
      "ENG": [
        6.95,
        7.09,
        6.94,
        6.57,
        7.01,
        7.78,
        7.83,
        7.97,
        7.68,
        7.99,
        8.22,
        7.54,
        7.25,
        7.26,
        7.04,
        6.72,
        7.36,
        8.66,
        8.31,
        8.22,
        9.31,
        9.01,
        9.46,
        8.62,
        13.16,
        12.9,
        12.81,
        12.45,
        12.3,
        10.91,
        18.53,
        15.52,
        16.01,
        15.08,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0
      ],
      "NOR": [
        2.17,
        2.31,
        2.22,
        2.15,
        2.15,
        3.2,
        2.64,
        3.31,
        2.74,
        2.77,
        2.78,
        3.03,
        3.14,
        2.69,
        2.49,
        2.61,
        2.12,
        2.33,
        2.42,
        2.04,
        2.93,
        2.81,
        3.06,
        2.47,
        5.04,
        4.96,
        4.31,
        4.68,
        4.31,
        4.05,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0
      ],
      "MEX": [
        1.48,
        1.56,
        1.48,
        1.47,
        1.4,
        1.48,
        1.28,
        1.15,
        1.51,
        1.07,
        1.1,
        1.2,
        1.5,
        1.31,
        0.97,
        1.28,
        1.16,
        0.93,
        1.03,
        1.06,
        1.43,
        1.59,
        1.54,
        1.46,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0,
        0
      ]
    }
  },
  "snapshotCount": 39
}
